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US President Donald Trump has spoken many times since coming to office of his friendship with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping
US President Donald Trump has spoken many times since coming to office of his friendship with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping
30.11.2018 14:42 Global Slovakia
What’s at stake for Slovakia in G20’s Buenos Aires Summit?
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30.11.2018 14:42 Global Slovakia

What’s at stake for Slovakia in G20’s Buenos Aires Summit?



BRATISLAVA-Slovakia has a lot at stake in Buenos Aires this weekend but not at any soccer stadium.


Leaders from the world’s top twenty economies meet in the Argentine capital, with all attention fixed on a Saturday night deal-making dinner between U.S. President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping where they will discuss deepening disputes in the global economy.  Especially of interest is Trump’s threat to increase tariffs (import taxes) on goods from China, Europe, and elsewhere, and to extend them to autos. 

 

 

With Slovakia’s entire economy now very much integrated into global supply chains for automotives, electronics, energy, finance, technology, agriculture, steel, etc., this small country surely has “some skin in the game.”  However, Slovakia does not have a seat at the table.  

 

The European Union’s members in the G20 are Germany, France and Italy, and all are arguably aligned with Slovakia’s agenda, especially in the important economic sector of automobiles.  But not even Europe’s G20 members will meet with the two economic titans.

 

Trump wants China to change its entire model of economic development to act more like America’s.  That means increasing intellectual property protections, prohibiting forced technology transfers, eliminating all state subsidies, and many other economic policies that allowed China emerge as an export powerhouse in recent decades. 

 

After 5,000 years of civilization, China does not listen to lecturing. Yet China is changing by further opening its economy to more foreign banks and investment services and insurance companies, areas where U.S. and E.U. firms can compete.

 

Trump’s changes would make China change its entire economic strategy and would take a lot of time.  China has very mixed economy and has achieved its increasing living standards by being the world’s workshop for manufacturing iPhones, shoes, jets, toys, et. al.

 

Three basic scenarios that top leaders could create in Buenos Aires include:

 

1. Trump does not agree with Xi.  Trump told reporters he doesn’t want a deal as he’s happy with tariffs, and he may want more.  While some investors may be spooked by no deal (because it means more trade war), others have already priced-in deeper troubles.  Markets may decline still more on the dark mood for immediate global economic prospects, with more uncertainty for figuring out in 2019.

 

2. Trump and Xi agree on enough to keep talking, with an agreed timetable toward final deal.  Ideally, that should happen under WTO where all countries convene to agree on 

world trade rules, but Trump appears to want to isolate China to maximize leverage for a deal that he can claim makes America great again.

 

3.  Trump Xi agree on an overall agenda and all walk away happy.  It’s the least likely.

 

In any case for Slovakia, it seems the impacts from trade tensions may get tougher before they get better.  But still there is time and, with the lack of strong leaders in Europe, increasing political space to propose solutions.

 



reklama


Zdroj: V.M.Netky.sk

Foto:  Nicolas Asfouri | AFP | Getty Images /REUTERS



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